ENTSO-E Summer Outlook 2017: adequacy to be monitored in Italy & Poland if sustained heat wave

entso-e, Avenue de Cortenbergh, Brussels, Belgium

In Italy, in case of very high temperatures, adequacy – the balance between generation and consumption – will have to be monitored most of the summer and in particular from mid-June till end of July. This is due to reduced generation capacity in the North and Central North, due to the recent closing down of several power plants, and possible constrained flows in the northern and southern areas.

Terna, the Italian TSO, has already planned countermeasures (demand side response, temporary reactivation of closed plants…) but a risk still exists of some planned load shedding in case of very strong heat waves and low hydro reserves.

ENTSO-E performs its pan-European system adequacy analysis for the hour of 19.00 Central European Summer Time (CEST). This is when consumption, deducted from variable renewable, is generally at its peak. The probability of high temperatures as well as wind and photovoltaic generation conditions are also considered.

For Poland, the analysis does not show any risk at 19.00 CEST but adequacy might be under stress at other times. Indeed, the consumption peak in Poland occurs between 13:00 and 14:00 CEST and solar generation is still negligible. Even though there is a high amount of solar generation available at the same time in neighbouring Germany, import is limited due to unscheduled flows through the Polish system (in the west to south direction).


Source: ENTSO-E

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